Martin Neil

Professor of Computer Science and Statistics
Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis Research group (RADAR)
Department of Computer Science
Queen Mary, University of London

Room No: CS/439
Email: martin@dcs.qmw.ac.uk
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7882 5221
Fax: +44 (0) 870 131 8460

Chief Technology Officer, Agena Ltd,
http://www.AgenaRisk.com
Email: martin@agena.co.uk

Research Interests

- Bayesian Networks

- Risk Analysis (in all domains)

- Machine Learning and Statistics

- Decision Support

- Monte Carlo Simulation

- Data Fusion and Intelligent Systems

I develop and use AgenaRisk to model risk, for designing intelligent systems and for data analysis.

Biography

Martin is Professor in Computer Science and Statistics at the Department of Computer Science, Queen Mary, University of London, where he teaches decision and risk analysis and software engineering. Martin is also a joint founder and Chief Technology Officer of Agena Ltd, who develop and distribute AgenaRisk, a software product for modeling risk and uncertainty (Contact: martin@agena.co.uk) and a Visiting Reader in the Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Surrey.

 

Martin has over twenty years experience in academic research, teaching, consulting, systems development and project management and has published or presented over 70 papers in refereed journals and at major conferences . His interests cover Bayesian modeling and/or risk quantification in diverse areas: operational risk in finance, systems and design reliability (including software), software project risk, decision support, simulation (using dynamic discretisation as an alternative to Monte Carlo) cost benefit analysis, AI and personalization, and statistical learning.

 

Martin has consulted to Motorola, Philips, NATS, QinetiQ, Advantica, DSTL (UK MOD), ABSA, Ericsson, Royal Bank of Canada, TNO and others, either providing advanced risk modeling expertise or systems deployment and integration using AgenaRisk. Before setting up Agena and joining academia Martin previously held senior positions with JP Morgan and Lloyds Register in the areas of software project governance and safety critical systems evaluation respectively.

 

Martin earned a BSc in Mathematics, a PhD in Statistics and Software Metrics and is a Chartered Engineer.

Our paper "Neil M. and Fenton N.E. A Critique of Software Defect Prediction Research. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering,.25, No. 5, 1999" is placed in the top 1%, within its field, according to the number of citations received, as calculated by Essential Science Indicators in Web of Science (see http://isiwebofknowledge.com/).

Publications & Conference Papers

Submitted and In Press

1. Neil M. Marquez D. Fenton N. Improved Reliability Modeling using Bayesian Networks and Dynamic Discretisation. Submitted for publication to Reliability and System Safety, October 2008.

 

2. Neil M. and Xiaoli C. Optimizing the Calculation of Conditional Probability Tables in Hybrid Bayesian Networks using Binary Factorization. To be submitted.

 

3. N. Fenton, P. Hearty, M. Neil and Ł. Radliński. Software Project and Quality Modelling Using Bayesian Networks. In Artificial Intelligence Applications for Improved Software Engineering Development: New Prospects. Part of the Advances in Intelligent Information Technologies (AIIT) Book Series. Edited by: F. Meziane and S. Vadera. Information Science Reference. July 2009. ISBN: 978-1-60566-758-4.

 

4. Fenton, N.E. and M. Neil, Risk Assessment with Bayesian Networks. For publication 2010, London: Chapman and Hall.

 

5. Fenton, N.E. and Neil, M., Avoiding Legal Fallacies in Practice Using Bayesian Networks, Howard Journal, 2009

 

6. Fenton, N.E. and Neil, M Comparing risks of alternative medical diagnosis using Bayesian arguments, Journal of Biomedical Informatics, 2008

 

 

2007-2009

1. Neil M and Marquez D. Dependability Modelling of Repairable Systems using Bayesian Networks. 2nd IFAC Workshop on Dependable Control of Discrete Systems (DCDS09), Bari Italy, June 10-12 2009. [pdf]

 

2. Neil, M. and Hager, D., Modeling Operational Risk in Financial Institutions using Hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Networks. Journal of Operational Risk, Volume 4/Number 1, Spring, 2009. [pdf]

 

3. Marquez, D., Neil, M., and Fenton, N., Solving Dynamic Fault Trees using a New Hybrid Bayesian Network Inference Algorithm, in 16th Mediterranean Conference on Control and Automation (MOD 08). 2008: Ajaccio, Corsica, France. [pdf]

 

4. Fenton, N.E. and Neil, M., Avoiding Legal Fallacies in Practice Using Bayesian Networks, in Seventh International Conference on Forensic Inference and Statistics. 2008: Lausanne, Switzerland.

 

5. Fenton, N.E., Neil, M., Marsh, W., Hearty, P., Radlinski, L., and Krause, P., On the effectiveness of early life cycle defect prediction with Bayesian Nets. Empirical Software Engineering, Volume 13, Number 5 / October, 2008. DOI: 10.1007/s10664-008-9072-x

 

6. Neil M. Marquez D. And Fenton N. Using Bayesian Networks to model operational risk to information technology infrastructure in financial institutions. Cass-Capco Institute Paper series on risk - Journal Vol. 22., April 2008. Available online from: http://www.capco.com/   [pdf]

 

7. Neil M. Tailor M. Marquez D. Inference in Bayesian Networks using Dynamic Discretisation. Statistics and Computing 17:3 September 2007. [pdf]

 

8. Neil M. Tailor M. Marquez D. Fenton N. Hearty P. Modelling Dependable Systems using Hybrid Bayesian Networks. Reliability Engineering & System Safety. Volume 93, Issue 7, July 2008, Pages 933-939.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2007.03.009. [pdf]

 

9. Marquez D, Neil M, Fenton NE, "Improved Dynamic Fault Tree Modelling using Bayesian Networks", The 37th Annual IEEE/IFIP International Conference on Dependable Systems and Networks, DSN 2007, Edinburgh 2007.

 

10. Fenton, N.E., Neil, M., and Marquez, D., Using Bayesian Networks to Predict Software Defects and Reliability. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O, Journal of Risk and Reliability, Volume 222, Number 4 / 2008. ISSN 1748/006X.  (Also presented at 5th International Mathematical Methods in Reliability Conference (MMR 07), Glasgow 1-4 July 2007.)

 

11. Marquez D, Neil M, Fenton NE, "A new Bayesian Network Approach to Reliability Modeling", 5th International Mathematical Methods in Reliability Conference (MMR 07), Glasgow 1-4 July 2007. [pdf]

 

12. Fenton NE, Neil M,  Marsh W, Hearty P, Krause P, Radliński Ł. , "Project Data Incorporating Qualitative Factors for Improved Software Defect Prediction, International Conference on Software Engineering (ICSE), PROMISE workshop, 2007.

 

13. Neil M. Gabaiiero J. Fenton N. Using Ranked Nodes to Model Qualitative Judgments in Bayesian Networks. Transactions in Knowledge and Data Engineering, 19(10), October, 2007. [pdf]

 

14. Khodakerami V, Fenton NE, Neil M, "Project Scheduling: Improved approach to incorporating uncertainty using Bayesian Networks", Project Management Journal, Vol. 38 Issue 2, p39-49, 2007. [pdf]

 

15. Radliński, Ł., Fenton, N.E., Neil, M., and Marquez, D., Improved Decision-Making for Software Managers Using Bayesian Networks, in 11th IASTED Int. Conf. Software Engineering and Applications (SEA). 2007: Cambridge, MA, USA p. 13–19.

 

16. Fenton NE, Neil M, Hearty P, Marsh W, Krause P, Mishra R, "Predicting Software Defects in Varying Development Lifecycles using Bayesian Nets", Information & Software Technology, Vol 49, pp 32-43, Jan. 2007.

 

17. Neil, M., Fenton, N., and Marquez, D., Using Bayesian Networks and Simulation for Data Fusion and Risk Analysis, in NATO Science for Peace and Security Series: Information and Communication Security, Skanata and Byrd, D.M., Editors. 2007, IOS Press, Nieuwe Hemweg 6B, 1013 BG Amsterdam, The Netherlands.

 

18. Radliński, Ł., Fenton, N.E., Neil, M., and Marquez, D., Modelling Prior Productivity and Defect Rates in a Causal Model for Software Project Risk Assessment. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies, 2007. 16(4A): p. 256-260.

 

19. Fenton, N.E. and Neil, M., Managing Risk in the Modern World: Bayesian Networks and the Applications, 1. 2007, London Mathematical Society, Knowledge Transfer Report. 

 

 

2001 - 2006

1. Joseph A., Fenton, N. and Neil M. Predicting Football Results Using Bayesian Nets and other Machine Learning Techniques. Knowledge Based Systems, Vol. 19, No. 7. (2006), pp. 544-553. [pdf]

2. Neil M., Fenton, N. and Marquez, D. Invited paper on "Using Bayesian Networks and Simulation for Data Fusion and Risk Analysis" presented at the NATO "Security through Science" sponsored Advanced Research Workshop on "Computational Models of Risk to Infrastructure", Primosten Croatia, May 9th - 13th, 2006. To be published by IOS Press. [pdf]

3. Neil M., Tailor M. , Marquez D., Fenton N. and Hearty P. , "Modeling Dependable Systems using Hybrid Bayesian Networks". Proceedings of the first international conference on Availability, Reliability and Security, April 20-22, 2006, Vienna, Austria. IEEE Computer Society. Pages 817-821.

4. Fenton NE and Neil M, "Expert Elicitation for Reliable System Design", Statistical Science, 2006, 21(4), 451-453.

5. Fenton n., Radliński Ł, Neil m. "Improved Bayesian Networks for Software Project Risk Assessment Using Dynamic Discretisation,  Software Engineering Techniques (SET 2006), Warsaw, Poland,  17-20 Oct 2006.

6. Hearty P, Fenton NE, Neil M, Cates P,  "Automated population of causal models for improved software risk assessment", 20th IEEE/ACM International Conference on Automated Software Engineering, Long Beach, California, USA, November 7-11, 2005, pp 433-435, ACM Press, ISBN: 1-59593-993-4.

7. Fenton NE and Neil M, ''A Critique of Software Defect Prediction Models'',  in Machine Learning Applications in Software Engineering (eds: Zhang D, Tsai JJP), pp 72-86, ISBN 981-256-094-7, World Scientific Publishing Co, 2005

7. Neil M. Using Risk Maps to Visually Model & Communicate Risk. Presented at the Institiute of Risk Management (IRM) Annual Symposium, September 2005.

8. Neil M. Fenton N., "Improved Software Defect Prediction". Presented at the Software Engineering Process Group (SEPG) Conference, June 14th 2005.

9. Neil M., Fenton N. and Tailor M. Using Bayesian Networks to model Expected and Unexpected Operational Losses. Risk Analysis Journal, August 2005. [pdf]

10. Fenton NE and Neil M, "Combining evidence in risk analysis using Bayesian Networks", Safety Critical Systems Club Newsletter 13 (4), pp 8-13 Sept 2004.

11. Fenton NE, Marsh W, Neil M, Cates P, Forey S, Tailor T, "Making Resource Decisions for Software Projects", 26th International Conference on Software Engineering (ICSE 2004), May 2004, Edinburgh, United Kingdom. IEEE Computer Society 2004, ISBN 0-7695-2163-0, pp. 397-406. [pdf]

12. Neil M. Malcolm B. and Shaw R. Modeling an Air Traffic Control Environment Using Bayesian Belief Networks. 21st International System Safety Conference, August 4 - 8, 2003, in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. [pdf]

13. Neil M., Krause P., Fenton N. Software Quality Prediction Using Bayesian Networks in Software Engineering with Computational Intelligence, edited by Khoshgoftaar T. M. The Kluwer International Series in Engineering and Computer Science, Volume 731, 2003.

14. Neil M, Shaw R, Johnson S, Malcolm B, Donald I, Qiu Xie C. "Measuring Culturally Inspired Risk" in Proceedings of the 11th Safety-Critical Systems Symposium, Bristol, UK, 4-6 February 2003. Springer, London 2003.

15. Neil M, Fenton N, Forey S and Harris R. "Assessing Vehicle Reliability using Bayesian Networks" in Global Vehicle Reliability, Edited by J. E. Strutt and P.L. Hall. Professional Engineering Publishing, 2003.

16. Neil M, McNee I. and Harris R. "Transport Reliability Assessment and Calculation System for Predicting the Reliability of Military Vehicles". Presented at 15th ARTS Conference on Advanced in Reliability Technology Symposium, 8 - 10 April, 2003.

17. Neil M. Using Bayesian networks to track operational risks. Operational Risk Europe Conference, London, February 2002 & Operational Risk USA Conference, New York January 2002 &. Published by Incisivemedia, 2002 (http://www.operationalriskonline.com/).

18. Fenton NE and Neil M, ''Making Decisions: Using Bayesian Nets and MCDA'', Knowledge-Based Systems 14, 307-325, 2001. [pdf]

19. Fenton N, Neil M and Krause P. Software Metrics: Uncertainty and Causal Modelling. EuroSPI conference, Limerick Institute of Technology, Limerick, 10th-12th October 2001.

20. Fenton NE, Krause P, Neil M, "Software Measurement: Uncertainty and Causal Modelling",  IEEE Software 10(4), 116-122, 2002.

21. Fenton NE, "Conducting and Presenting Empirical Software Engineering",  Journal of Empirical Software Engineering 6(3), 195-200, 2001.

22. Fenton N, Krause P, Neil M, "Probabilistic Modelling for Software Quality Control", Sixth European Conference on Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty September 19-21, 2001, Toulouse, France. Also appears in Journal of Applied Non-Classical Logics. Vol. 12 No 2, 2002.

23. Neil M, Fenton N, Forey S and Harris R, "Using Bayesian Belief Networks to Predict the Reliability of Military Vehicles", IEE Computing and Control Engineering J  12(1), 11-20, 2001. [pdf]

1996 - 2000

1.    Neil M, Fenton NE, Nielsen L, ''Building large-scale Bayesian Networks'', The Knowledge Engineering Review, 15(3), 257-284, 2000. [pdf]

2.    Fenton NE and Neil M, ''The Jury Observation Fallacy and the use of Bayesian Networks to present Probabilistic Legal Arguments'', Mathematics Today (Bulletin of the IMA, 36(6)), 180-187, 2000. [pdf]

3.    Fenton NE and Neil M, "Software Metrics: Roadmap", in 'The Future of Software Engineering' (Editor: Anthony Finkelstein) 22nd International Conference on Software Engineering, ACM Press ISBN 1-58113-253-0, pp.357-370, 2000. [pdf]

4.    Fenton NE and Neil M, ''Bayesian belief nets: a causal model for predicting defect rates and resource requirements'', Software Testing and Quality Engineering 2(1), 48-53, 2000.

5.    Neil M. and Fenton N.E. A Critique of Software Defect Prediction Research. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering,.25, No. 5, 1999. [pdf]

6.    Fenton N and Neil M. Software Metrics and Risk, FESMA 99, 2nd European Software Measurement Conference, 8 October, 1999.

7.    Fenton Norman E., Neil Martin, Software metrics: successes, failures and new directions, Journal Of Systems And Software (47)2-3, pp. 149-157, 1999. [pdf]

8.    Fenton N.E., and Neil M. A Strategy for Improving Safety Related Software Engineering Standards. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering Vol. 24, No. 11, November 1998

9.    Neil M., Southworth M., Tobin M. and Ostrolenk G. Lessons from Using Z to Specify a Software Tool. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, Vol. 24, No.1,pp 15-23,January 1998.

10.Fenton N., Littlewood B., Neil M., Strigini L., Sutcliffe A. and Wright D. Assessing dependability of safety critical systems using diverse evidence. IEE Proceedings on Software Engineering, Vol. 145, No.1, February 1998.

11.Neil M. Software Defect Density Prediction. Proceedings of the Annual Software Metrics (ASM) conference, November 4-5, 1997, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.

12.Neil M. and Fenton N. Predicting Software Quality using Bayesian Belief Networks. Proceedings of the 21st Annual Software Engineering Workshop at NASA Goddard Space Flight Centre, Washington, 4-5 December 1996.

13.Littlewood B., Neil, M. and Ostrolenk, G. Uncertainty in Software-Intensive Systems. High Integrity Systems Journal, Vol. 1 No. 5, 00 407-413, 1996.

1990 - 1996

1.    Littlewood B., Neil, M. and Ostrolenk, G. The Role of Models in Managing Uncertainty of Software-Intensive Systems. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 46 87-95, 1995. 

2.    Neil M. Littlewood B. and Fenton N. Applying Bayesian Belief Networks to Systems Dependability Assessment. Proceedings of Safety Critical Systems Club Symposium, Leeds, Published by Springer-Verlag, 6-8 February 1996.

3.    Bache, R.M. and Neil M.D. Introducing Metrics into Industry: A Perspective on GQM. In Software Quality Assurance and Measurement: A Worldwide Perspective. Edited by N. Fenton, R. Whitty and Y. Iizuka. International Thomson Computer Press, London, 1995.

4.    Neil M.D. Sections on Statistical Control of Software Quality (pp. 65-68) and Product Quality Modelling (pp. 77-80) in "Software Evaluation for Certification: Principles, Practice and Legal Liability". Rae A., Robert P. and Hausen H. (Editors). McGraw Hill, International Software Quality Assurance Series, London 1995.

5.    Neil M.D. and Bache R.M. Chapter on Metrics Analysis in "Software Metrics for Product Assessment" (pp. 88-111). Editors, Bache R.M. and Bazzana G. McGraw Hill, International Software Quality Assurance Series, London 1994.

6.    Neil M.D. Measurement as an alternative to Bureaucracy for the achievement of Software Quality. Software Quality Journal, 3, 65-78, 1994.

7.    Ostrolenk G., Tobin M., Southworth M. and Neil, M. Cost Effective Evaluation of a COBOL Parser Using an Operational Profile in Proceedings of the Eleventh Annual Conference of the Centre for Software Reliability (CSR), 1994.

8.    Woherem, E.E., Neil M.D., Estdale, J.F. Software Process Improvement through the GQM Approach: A Maintenance Case Study. 3rd International Conference on Software Quality, October 4-6, Lake Tahoe, Nevada, USA, 1993.

9.    Neil, M.D. and Lano K. Approaches to Maintenance Process Improvement via Measurement. European Conference on Software Maintenance. The CSM (Centre for Software Maintenance), Durham University, 27th September, 1993.

10. Neil, M.D. & Bache, R.M. Data Linkage Maps, Journal of Software Maintenance, Vol 5 No 3, September, 1993.

11. Neil M.D. Statistical Modelling of Software Metrics. PhD thesis, South Bank University, 1992.

12. Neil, M.D. Multivariate Assessment of Software Products. Journal of Software Testing, Verification and Reliability, Vol 1(4), pp 17-37, 1992. Also presented at 3rd Annual Oregon Workshop on Software Metrics (AOWSM), Portland, Oregon, USA, 1991.

13. Bache, R.M. and Neil M. Validating Technologies for Certifying Software Products. Proceedings of IFIP Conference on Approving Software Products (ASP-90). North-Holland, September 1990.

14. Neil, M.D., Slater, D. and Cole, R.J. Measures for Maintenance Management: A Case Study. Journal for Software Maintenance: Research and Practice, Volume 2, No.4, 223-240, 1990.